Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Creating a Résumé That Sells

WSJ posted a well thought summary of what should your resume have (and not have) if you are looking for a leadership position.

Excellent example of Dawn Jordan, a 39-year-old marketing professional from Laguna Beach, Calif. Ms. Jordan, also a blogger for WSJ.com's Laid Off & Looking blog, has been job hunting since her position as an operations vice president at Bank of America Corp. was eliminated in October 2008.

Creating a Résumé That Sells

41 Questions and 1 Personality

A good personality finder:

http://www.41q.com/


MY RESULTS: http://www.41q.com/type.41q?p=13677636

Your personality type: "Social Realist"


Warm-hearted, popular and conscientious. Tend to put the needs of others over their own needs. Feel strong sense of responsibility and duty. Value traditions and security. Interested in serving others. Need positive reinforcement to feel good about themselves. Well-developed sense of space and function.

Careers that could fit you include:

Home economics, nursing, teaching, administrators, child care, family practice physician, clergy, office managers, counselors, social workers, bookkeeping, accounting, secretaries, organization leaders, dental assistants, homemakers, radiological technologists, receptionists, religious educators, speech pathologists.

Top Ten Newsletter | McKinsey

Link at the end 

1. GOVERNANCE
Leadership lessons for hard times
A series of interviews with 14 CEOs and chairmen of major companies sheds light on the foundations of corporate leadership.

2. BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY
Five trends that will shape business technology in 2009
The year 2009 will be challenging for CIOs. Here’s how to play your hand.

3. FINANCIAL SERVICES
A better way to fix the banks
Here’s a plan that could solve the toxic-asset pricing problem voluntarily—without requiring Uncle Sam to nationalize the whole industry—and make (pretty much) everyone a winner.

4. HIGH TECH
Hal Varian on how the Web challenges managers
Google’s chief economist says executives in wired organizations need a sharper understanding of how technology empowers innovation. [includes interactive]

5. STRATEGY
Leading through uncertainty
The range of possible futures confronting business is great. Companies that nurture flexibility, awareness, and resiliency are more likely to survive the crisis, and even to prosper.

6. ECONOMIC STUDIES
The crisis—one year on: McKinsey Global Economic Conditions Survey results, September 2009
A year after the global economic system nearly collapsed, many companies are finally finding ways to increase profits under the new conditions. But almost as many expect profits to continue falling, and executives also indicate that their broader financial hopes remain fragile. Many expect more government involvement in economies and industries over the long term.

7. MARKETING
Enduring Ideas: The industry cost curve
In this interactive presentation—one in a series of multimedia frameworks—McKinsey director Rob Latoff offers insight into the industry cost curve, a business school classic for understanding pricing. By bringing discipline and a practical set of definitions to bear, this framework can be applied to real-world, competitive markets. [includes interactive]

8. BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY
How companies are benefiting from Web 2.0: McKinsey Global Survey Results
The heaviest users of Web 2.0 applications are also enjoying benefits such as increased knowledge sharing and more effective marketing. These benefits often have a measurable effect on the business.

(Premium membership required)

9. ORGANIZATION
Good boss, bad times
Management expert Robert Sutton shares lessons on handling layoffs and teams in crisis. [includes video]

10. CORPORATE FINANCE
What next? Ten questions for CFOs
As companies shift their attention from fighting the crisis to getting the most from the recovery, CFOs must keep them focused.

Read : McKinsey's best of the year

Real Estate Investor Insights

I attended a real estate investor seminar and thought of putting together some thoughts. Above all, what I really liked in the whole conversation was how they described fear and ignorance to be the sole determinant of success vs frustration. Gist of that was, if you do not look into the details of something that you are unclear about... you would probably refrain from looking into opportunities that exist. For example, I fear from buying something that is a foreclosure or a REO as I do not know what fixing of a property entails. Well, I realized that its usually not a big deal and most of the properties can be fixed for $5k to $25K (depending upon the property).

So, here are the four strategies that were discussed in the seminar. Please pay attention to changing numbers in each case.

Short Sale: When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property, the property is put for sale by a owner. Bank basically agrees to accept less than they lended. Here is a brief on how this works out:


Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price:    240,000 (Value went down)
Owner Sale Price               200,000
Morgage and Tax Backlog   10,000
Closing Costs                        5,000
Total Cost to buyer             215,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $25,000

Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 25K? you decide for yourself!

Foreclosure: When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property, the property is foreclosed by bank (Morgage Comapany). Now, bank tries to sell it. Here is a brief on how this works out:

Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price:       240,000 (Value went down)


Bank Sale Price                     170,000
Morgage and Tax Backlog       10,000
Closing Costs                            5,000
Cost to Fix the property           15,000
Total Cost to buyer                200,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $40,000
Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 40K? you decide for yourself!
Please Note: A property may sell in short sale, if it attaracts appropriate number of buyers and they feel its worth 215K. So, it may not ever be foreclosed.


Auctions: a) When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property b) Property was not sold during short sale and c) the property was not sold when foreclosed by bank (Morgage Comapany).

Now, government body tries to auction it to recover taxes etc. Here is a brief on how this works out:


Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price:        240,000 (Value went down)

Auction Sale Price                  140,000
Tax Backlog                             10,000
Closing Costs                             3.000
Cost to Fix                               30,000
Total Cost to buyer                183,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $57,000

Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 57K? you decide for yourself!

Please Note: A property may sell in short sale, if it attaracts appropriate number of buyers and they feel its worth 215K. Most properties sell during foreclosure. So, it may not ever be auctioned. Also, think of the property that did not attract buyers on two major price reductions.

REO (Real Estate Owned): a) When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property b) Property was not sold during short sale c) the property was not sold when foreclosed by bank (Morgage Comapany) and d) Property was not sold during auction


Now, bank again tries to auction it to recover as much as possible and take it off their books. Here is a brief on how this works out:

Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price: 240,000 (Value went down)

Sale Price                        115,000
Closing Costs                      3,000
Cost to Fix                        30,000
Total Cost to buyer         148,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $92,000

Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 92K? you decide for yourself!

Please Note: A property may sell in short sale, if it attaracts appropriate number of buyers and they feel its worth 215K. Most properties sell during foreclosure. So, it may not ever be auctioned. Also, think of the property that did not attract buyers on three major price reductions. However, REOs are pretty much as good as auctions because during auction you must pay in cash within 24hrs. Bank can lend you money to purchase REOs from them.

Remember, you must negotiate with bank to have them accept as low as possible. Numbers above are just representative. For every dollar bank has on a morgage, they have to set aside seven dollars that they can not touch. so, for a 200K house, there is 1.4M that they have on hold. They want to release that money asap by selling 200K property asap.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Schools with MS in Finance Program Sorted by Lenght (US Only)

School name
Country
Name of programme
Prior work experience required
Intakes per year
Enrolment months
Study mode
Length of programme - full-time (months)
Employed at 3 months - full-time programme (%)
Numbers enrolled 2008/9 - full-time
Purdue University: Krannert
US
Master of Science degree in Finance
No
1
July
F / T
10
n/a
25
Tulane University: Freeman
US
Master of Finance
No
1
July
F / T
10
92
73
University of Florida: Hough
US
Master of Science in Finance
No
1
July
Both
10
79
23
Washington University: Olin
US
Master of Science in Finance
Preferred
1
Aug
Both
10 or 17
87
37
Temple University: Fox
US
MS in Financial Engineering
Preferred
1
Sep
Both
11
n/a
12
Brandeis University
US
Master of Science in Finance
Yes
3
Aug, Jan, May
Both
12
n/a
11
UCLA: Anderson
US
Master of Financial Engineering
Preferred
1
Jan
F / T
12
n/a
39
George Washington University
US
The Master of Science in Finance Program
Preferred
1
Sep
Both
12
100
43
University of California at Berkeley: Haas
US
Master's in Financial Engineering
Preferred
1
Mar
F / T
12
97
64
Boston College: Carroll (GMAT Needed)
US
Master of Science in Finance
Preferred
2
Jan, Sep
Both
12
82
41
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
US
Master of Science in Finance
Preferred
1
June
F / T
12
71
101
Villanova School of Business
US
Master of Science in Finance
No
1
May
F / T
12
63
22
Illinois Institute of Technology: Stuart
US
Master of Science in Finance
Yes
3
Jan, May, Aug
Both
12-16
n/a
110
Drexel University: LeBow
US
Master of Science in Finance
Preferred
3
Sep, Jan, Mar
Both
12-24
72
18
Saint Joseph's University
US
Master of Science in Financial Services
No
3
Sep, Jan, May
Both
15
100
8
Claremont Graduate University
US
Financial Engineering Program
Preferred
1
Aug
Both
16
72
18
Temple University: Fox
US
MS in Finance
Preferred
2
Sep, Jan
Both
18
n/a
22
Louisiana State University: Ourso
US
Master of Science in Finance
No
2
Jan, Aug
Both
18
100
14
DePaul University: Kellstadt
US
Master of Science in Finance
Preferred
4
Sep, Jan, Apr, July
Both
21
n/a
24
University of Houston: Bauer
US
Masters of Science in Finance
Preferred
2
Jan, Aug
Both
24
n/a
n/a
Georgia State University: Robinson
US
Master of Science in Finance
Preferred
3
Aug, Jan, June
Both
24
90
15
University of Utah: Eccles
US
Master of Science in Finance
No
1
Aug
Both
9
87
18
Vanderbilt University: Owen
US
Masters in Finance
No
1
Aug
F / T
9
64
28
Case Western Reserve University: Weatherhead
US
Master of Science in Management - Finance
No
2
June, Aug
Both
9-15
n/a
26

Monday, November 9, 2009

A Practical Guide To Finding Your Passion

We frequently hear the prophesy - follow what matters to you most or do what you love. However, I always wondered (like most of us) that how important it is for me to follow what I love. I grew up with a thought that stabilizing my family is the sole purpose of my life. What that meant to me was getting into top engineering school to get a well paying job. What could be better than not having them worry about their child's future? So I relentlessly and quite successfully did that and frequently experienced the pleasure of providing them the best. But, within seven years of professional career, I begin to question myself - now what? I had accomplished what I wanted and my accentuated career progression curve started to flatten. The energy inside was anxiously telling me to make the next stride. Spot check at job satisfaction clearly exposed a feeling of emptiness even though I was doing the best throughout the day. I begin to wonder "what is it that I want" and in quest for finding that "what", i came across a book - success build to last.

A very few are fortunate to know what they are passionate about and little out of those follow what they love. This small elite group of people comprise of leaders who enjoy eternal sense of satisfaction and often they  shape this world. However phony this statement sounds, this is the ground reality. I am not saying that I am following what I am passionate about, but, with the help of this book, I have started to pave the way for that. Some of the things I liked about this book and that have already helped me shape my thoughts are:

  • A Practical Way of Finding What You Love: Often, we are already following what we love, but, in a mild and suppressed form. We just have to clear the haze and shine that piece of our life. For example one can say I am passionate about basketball. I practice and watch the game every day, read news, follow it more than anything else. Well, you could very well be a basketball fan, but, think again. What is it that can energize you to get up and do something even after a tiring practice session of basketball. Is it a discussion about new venture? Is it acting in a play? Or is it playing with children? Your passion can very well be one of these. What can you do for a stranger for free? Is it researching a business idea, designing a house or clubbing with him to paint a wall? When you look for your passion ask these questions to yourself , look for signs and you will get it. One last thing, you passion could very well be left behind with your childhood. But, there is always be a thought of that thing still living in some remote room of your heart which is locked by everyday life. Dig deeper and do not deny yourself. Consider and eliminate everything before you get down to just ONE thing.
  • Urgency to Follow What You Love: The author said one statement that stick in my mind. If you don't love your job then someone who is passionate about that job will snatch it from you. Brutal example of that is the current spree of layoffs. If you do not follow what you really love, you are bound to fail and the reason is simple. A person who loves his job will put earnest efforts to chisel his skills to perform the best on this job. On the other hand, you would merely be making it through the day. Result...catastrophic!
  • Finding a Propeller: Recall the pleasure you experienced when you last time did what you love. Use a collection of such memories as the primary driver to make this transition. It could be a drastic change, but, chances of your failing in making this change are extremely rare. Remember, when you follow your passion, work becomes leisure and you do not even realize how quickly you become successful. Money, recognition, popularity -they all come with time. They do come in abundance, but, you have to be patient and persistent - irrespective what people around you think of you.
Here is the link to this book: http://www.amazon.com/Success-Built-Last-Creating-Matters/dp/013228751X

Sunday, November 8, 2009

GRE Scores and Schools

Free GRE admissions resources:

1. Testmagic forum
2. University Research: http://www.edulix.com/infobank/login.php
3. Programs and profile of people getting into your choice of university:
http://www.edulix.com/infobank/login.php
4. US News graduate ranking for science
5. Financial Times (FT) ranking for 1 year finance programs

Friday, November 6, 2009

Test Post Via Email

Good?
--

Thanks
Vishal Goel

Motivating Employees

Mckenzie quarterly recently published an article about motivating employees in this economy. I think its by chance that the article was published in this economy and it became so important to understand. With all the companies in dearth of cash and depleted reserves, following were cited as three main ideas that can help manage employees anxiety and motivate them to do their jobs enthusiastically:

1. Appraisal from immediate manager - works wonder in any situation irrespective if economy. Important to get things done in the right way.
2. Interaction with senior leadership - Senior leadership has to be immensely sensitive to employees anxiety and keep in touch with them via emails, regular (weekly / bi-weekly) updates, personal meetings and appraise etc.
3. Opportunity to lead tasks if not projects - This brings the sense of worth in any employee as he gets energized to accomplish the assigned task / project.

Traditional motivation comes from (in sequence):
1. Cash Bonus
2. Basic Salary Hike
3. Stock and Stock Options

With traditions in jeopardy right now, follow the modern trends and get the most out of your organization. Here is the full story: https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Organization/Talent/Motivating_people_Getting_beyond_money_2460

Which MBA?

After months of struggle with a trivial question, Part Time or Full Time MBA, I have decided to utilize some of my learning from prior posts. But, let me first analyze what the real deal is. The points below are things I understood by talking to many full time and part time current students and alums.

Further, I am thinking from the standpoint of a guy who is 30, with minimal business background at best, not an executive already and needs MBA to learn finance, strategy and running a sizable organization. This may not be relevant for an executive, who just need a degree to climb the ladder.

Why Full Time MBA?
After talking to many current part time students, some common pain points expressed were:
  • No time for a detailed study of subjects - Each subject requires atleast five hours and up to 10 hrs of reading outside the three hour class. If you are taking 2 subjects per quarter then you are already engaged for two evenings for classes. Rest of the three evenings are insufficient to complete outside classroom reading/learning.
  • No time for club and social activities - Well, most of the people have work related things going on in the evening. Tough to schedule group meetings / dinners / socials etc.
  • Fatigue - Initial enthusiasm is soon (within 3 quarters) overshadowed by fatigue. With slight lack of enthusiasm playing people tend to miss events, avoid group meetings. After all, a minimum of 12 Hrs workday schedule is fixed. Surprisingly, everybody mentioned family commitments as well. I did not think that would be a concern as (most of the) partners understand. But, who knows how things shape-up.
  • Implement B-School Lessons- I can't say alot on this, but, most of the Indian IT guys are working as some sort of programmer or team leader. There is hardly any opportunity to contribute to business side of your org. If you are in consulting, it makes your life further difficult as company is billing you for a project. So, you may not be the most appropriate guy to participate in corporate strategy development or marketing. Remember, your day is already stretched, its not going to be easy to find extra time to contribute to any organization wide initiatives or start your own business. But, this is all very personal and your org. dependent.
  • Recruitment - probably the most important aspect for most of us. People said that recruitment events are mostly during the day, when you are in office. So, most of the part timers can't attend. Huge advantage for full timers. With so much going on in life, its tough to maintain contact and network with industry guys.
  • Credibility and Network - FT definitely has more credibility. But, I am certain now that it is very slightly more, of not equal. You have a lot more time to network, write to people, meet with them etc.
  • Super fun and not Burden-  FT is fun as well - many many events, traveling, interaction points, a lot of alcohol etc. After all ya all will be together for two years FULL TIME.
Seems like everything is going wrong with part time MBA. So, why go Part Time?

  • Finances - Most of the people who are in this dilemma have 5+ years of experience and are near 30 years of age. It is a high time to get settled, start a family, have kids, take care of your parents, move out of an apartment and buy a decent house and what not! At this point imagine the cost of full time MBA - huge! Life is short, and there is so little time to fulfill all the responsibilities and lead a comfortable life. Taking the plunge of full time MBA at this point would mean shifting life events by minimum 4-5 years. 2 years of MBA and 2 Y of residual loan pay off before you can commence what you would have at the age of 29-30.
  • Poor job scene for visa seekers - Well, its not a huge concern as such but with this economy and protective govt. policies, it has become a concern. If you wanna go to Mckinsey, BCG, Bain - fine, no visa issues there for full timers. But, if you plan to say start a new business, go into IB or corporate functions like strategy, finance etc. or industry jobs say in JnJ, its tough to get visa sponsorship. Again, very personal decision and also depends on how much time you have left on your H1B. BUT, the very fact that you can continue pursuing your GC and MBA parallel makes a huge difference. When you graduate out of a PT MBA program and your are a GC holder, you can easily crack one of those corporate and industry jobs.
  • You can overcome everything I said about full time - The more your stretch yourself the better you become. No extra explanation needed, but, you have to be reeeaaaly... committed.
In the next post, i will apply lessons from Prof. Thaler (Chicago Booth) lecture on behavioral economics and decide on which way to go. After all, I am a consumer and need to decide what to buy.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Consumer Behavior Analysis - Part - 2

In the second lecture, Mr Thaler,  progenitor of behavior economics and esteemed professor at Chicago Booth decision research center, opened-up the discussion with a concept. He orchestrated a website (conceptually) that would read disclosures from various companies like credit cards and cell phone companies. The website will be a hub to research and select best service or product per individualized needs. His assumption was that every company should provide two electronic files as a part of disclosure. One that would enlist under what conditions will the fees be charged and give all the formulas for how fees will be calculated. The second would enlist all the charges levied on that customer's account. These files together will be crunched by the website to analyze customer's usage. Further, a compiled list of disclosures from various companies would allow the website to suggest which company would better fit a particular customer's needs. cool, isn't it? But, wait a minute...

Who is going to enforce that companies provide this disclosure? Even if government regulates this, who will ensure that disclosures are comprehensive and meet a particular standard. Fine, these problems are easy. But, why companies would not try to obscure? After all, they are there to make profits!

To this, Mr Thaler argued that market will ultimately regulate these companies. Citing example of Amazon and eBay, he stressed that if this website's CEO is smart and a company tries to camouflage information or refuse to cooperate, then this website can put a black spot against this company. Nobody wants to lose customers that way. But, questions were raised about brand reputation and trust that a brand builds over the years. Why would someone believe this website when he has 4 to 5 years of experience with this company. Mr Thaler then took the discussion into a broader arena stating, its interesting when is it in the interest of companies to obscure information and does that help or hurt customer. Companies are driven by repeat business. After several discussion around why hotels do not state parking charges etc the discussion took a different direction.

What is perceived value of a product and how to evaluate historic value of a product? Historic value is the value of the product at the time of purchase when it has been experienced by customer for some time. This is where all the reviews on a company or products come into picture. Imagine a genuine customer goes to Bestbuy to buy a digital camera. He is flooded with options that he do not even know how to comprehend, bar compare. It is often seen that consumer would buy a product that has more options than the one with less. He uses them or not is a separate story. There were other examples of how consumer creates a translation of features that can't be valued and everyone has his own translation. Further, it was demonstrated that the sequence in which the features (choices as well) are presented to the customer decides if he is going to chose this product or not.

The gist of the story was that when you buy products, you should look for options that matters to you most and then compare them and that is it. You should try to eliminate products one by one and not zero down to few and then chose one. Make a list of your must haves in sequence. Then, if you want something and this product is less in that feature than the other, drop it!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Sway - Irresistibly Irrational Behavior

We all get swayed by our beliefs, prejudices and the way we perceive situations around us. We form believes from our life experiences and use those believes to assess our surrounding. For example, we often leave items on sale just because the price is too low. This is driven by our inner feeling that reduced items are often defective or not liked by many.We sometimes even pick the item, like it, but then get swayed thinking that it on sale so there has to be something wrong with it. I myself value clothing based on its brand. A CK shirt has to be good but Aeropostale...I tend to wear it at home. This is an irrational behavior as there are plenty of companies who manufacture equally good products as known brands and tag them much lower. The end result is that I usually pass those items paying extra for the same quality to CK.


Other situations that sway us frequently relates to avoiding short term loss. We frequently cross road on yellow light or change lane quickly to save few seconds. This results in getting a ticket, higher insurance for few years and in some cases collision and loss of life. A similar situation is sticking to a sinking stock that you recently purchased. We all tend to wait for it to re-bounce to atleast the original purchase price. In this chase, we disregard pieces of information that are clearly indicating that this is a loser stock now. As the stock goes down further, we think that its going to come back to the value it was sitting when you made the nasty decision of keeping it for now. The desire to recover loss does not end until no value is left in the stock.


In all the examples above, the point is that we form instincts that become hindrance to our rational thinking. We take decisions in the influence of such instincts, disregarding facts and information that may be indicating otherwise. Such a behavior leads to making wrong choices. When we have to decide, we should take a long term view and see how the decision/choice that you are about to make fits into the long term view. Imagine you had sold the stock when it lost $2 to purchase something that gained $3 in next couple of weeks when your stock lost another $4.


Checkout this book: Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior

Friday, October 23, 2009

Consumer Behavior Analysis - Behavioral Economics?

Prof Richard Thaler from Booth school of business gave a very good lecture on why study of consumer behavior is important to understand economics. He further explained how feedback and choice architecture streamlines what consumers choose. Some of his examples, such as a thermostat that tells you how much more it is going to cost per degree change in temperature or a glowing bulb that tells you how much energy you are using, are intriguing. I also liked the idea of credit card machines. I think these examples provoke thoughts around general problems around us and economically viable solutions for them.

The basic idea is to understand the best interest of consumers and markets together and develop policies (choice architecture) around it. Consider the choice of donating organs example. If you provide a choice to the survivors of a person, they are likely to override the default option beating the whole purpose of default (of having more donations). Making a decision clear at some point (at the time of issuing drivers license for organ donation example) helps.

I was not very convinced with the solutions provided for dealing with compliance with medication. Even though non-adherence to some treatment schedules could be impacting all of us (like antibiotic or TB treatments), I don't think a lottery or false alert alone are the solutions. I think a pill box that can learn patient's behavior and present a combination of these (i.e. false alert, incentive or just a reminder) could be one expensive solution. Another way could be that the doctor enforce a choice when patient is diagnosed i.e. a box with particular attribute is given to the patient based on doctor's perception of the patient behavior. I think making doctor a choice architect may work.

Read the full story here: http://edge.org/3rd_culture/thaler_sendhil08/class1.html

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Free MBA Application Resources

1. A collections of comments (in order) on essays from Stacy Blackman, Adam Markus, Clearadmit, veritas prep, accepted.com
2. Readability Check with http://www.online-utility.org/english/readability_test_and_improve.jsp
3. Improve your bschool essays with http://www.fightthebull.com/bullfighter.asp.
4. School Visits and Interview Sections on above mentioned websites
5. Gmatclub

Most Importantly, school's student body / alums. Contact them early and request them to review your crap...

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Decision Theory

So, how do you feel about this: If you are an atheist, you are at loss.

According to Pascal, if God exist then the rewards of believing in God are numerous (contrary to not believing). If he does not exist, then neither theist nor atheist lost or gained anything.

Confused? Well, I was more confused when I started to read about decision theory. I am not going to get into lecture on decision theory (I'll not be able to anyway). But, I learned that decision theory is about making a choice (Decision!) under uncertainty.

Today I felt as if I usually make wrong judgment calls - joining a start-up right before economy started to doom or selling dollars after $ moved from its 52 week high!  When I look at the other side of it, benefits from joining start-up (not going into personal details) were huge too. But that good feeling that comes when benefits are availed has passed. Now, challenges of a start-up (bench time, furlough days) are beefing up and throwing me back to the days when I made that choice.

As per veterans, decisions should be well informed. However, most of the times decisions are to be made in uncertain circumstances. I recently read Micheal Useem's book "The go point". The book clearly delineated the process of making decisions with illustrations and practical examples and is a must read. However, now I am looking for something that can tell me how to evaluate decisions you took five or ten years back. Lets see what decision theory has in its kitty...