Slightly late but not too much. Trends in mobile and social media. Data upto 2011 but very relevant in spotting where things will go:

http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/18/mary-meekers-2011-presentation-on-internet-trends-slides/


Another report on social media:
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/report-details-rise-of-social-media/#h[]

How Great Entrepreneurs Think

What distinguishes great entrepreneurs? Discussions of entrepreneurial psychology typically focus on creativity, tolerance for risk, and the desire for achievement—enviable traits that, unfortunately, are not very teachable. So Saras Sarasvathy, a professor at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business, set out to determine how expert entrepreneurs think, with the goal of transferring that knowledge to aspiring founders. While still a graduate student at Carnegie Mellon, Sarasvathy—with the guidance of her thesis supervisor, the Nobel laureate Herbert Simon—embarked on an audacious project: to eavesdrop on the thinking of the country's most successful entrepreneurs as they grappled with business problems. She required that her subjects have at least 15 years of entrepreneurial experience, have started multiple companies—both successes and failures—and have taken at least one company public.

Sarasvathy identified 245 U.S. entrepreneurs who met her criteria, and 45 of them agreed to participate. (Responses from 27 appeared in her conclusions; the rest were reserved for subsequent studies. Thirty more helped shape the questionnaire.) Revenue at the subjects' companies—all run by the founders at that time—ranged from $200 million to $6.5 billion, in industries as diverse as toys and railroads. Sarasvathy met personally with all of her subjects, including such luminaries as Dennis Bakke, founder of energy giant AES; Earl Bakken of Medtronic; and T.J. Rodgers of Cypress Semiconductor. She presented each with a case study about a hypothetical start-up and 10 decisions that the founder of such a company would have to make in building the venture. Then she switched on a tape recorder and let the entrepreneur talk through the problems for two hours. Sarasvathy later collaborated with Stuart Read, of the IMD business school in Switzerland, to conduct the same experiment with professional managers at large corporations—the likes of Nestlé, Philip Morris, and Shell. Sarasvathy and her colleagues are now extending their research to novice entrepreneurs and both novice and experienced professional investors.


http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/how-great-entrepreneurs-think.html

Five new roads to look into

Five forces, or crucibles, where the stresses and tensions will be greatest and thus offer the richest opportunities for companies to innovate and change:

• The great rebalancing. The coming decade will be the first in 200 years when emerging-market countries contribute more growth than the developed ones. This growth will not only create a wave of new middle-class consumers but also drive profound innovations in product design, market infrastructure, and value chains.
• The productivity imperative. Developed-world economies will need to generate pronounced gains in productivity to power continued economic growth. The most dramatic innovations in the Western world are likely to be those that accelerate economic productivity.
• The global grid. The global economy is growing ever more connected. Complex flows of capital, goods, information, and people are creating an interlinked network that spans geographies, social groups, and economies in ways that permit large-scale interactions at any moment. This expanding grid is seeding new business models and accelerating the pace of innovation. It also makes destabilizing cycles of volatility more likely.
• Pricing the planet. A collision is shaping up among the rising demand for resources, constrained supplies, and changing social attitudes toward environmental protection. The next decade will see an increased focus on resource productivity, the emergence of substantial clean-tech industries, and regulatory initiatives.
• The market state. The often contradictory demands of driving economic growth and providing the necessary safety nets to maintain social stability have put governments under extraordinary pressure. Globalization applies additional heat: how will distinctly national entities govern in an increasingly globalized world?

Movies and pork bellies

Working for Options Clearing Corp taught me many things. Among those was an introduction to the history of Chicago's top exchanges. CME or Merc, originally started with futures contracts on frozen pork bellies, will soon see its first intangible commodity trading. Movies, will soon become the first intangible commodity to be traded on exchanges that allow future contract trading. Thinking of them as high risk commodities (is it really a commodity?), our Govt. is structuring regulations for these newly recognized commodities.

Why regulation? This commodity can be "manufactured" by two bound to doom Mr. Joes and the buyers of futures would lose all their money. To ensure that does not happen, we need regulation. But, how many times have we been able to capture all exceptions under regulations? Alright, no producer/director intends to make flop movies, BUT, only until there is no indirect payoff. And who suffers at the end of the day? Consumer - with potentially more flops shows than before and futures buyer whose money is snatched by the banker selling that security.

Real Estate Investor Insights

I attended a real estate investor seminar and thought of putting together some thoughts. Above all, what I really liked in the whole conversation was how they described fear and ignorance to be the sole determinant of success vs frustration. Gist of that was, if you do not look into the details of something that you are unclear about... you would probably refrain from looking into opportunities that exist. For example, I fear from buying something that is a foreclosure or a REO as I do not know what fixing of a property entails. Well, I realized that its usually not a big deal and most of the properties can be fixed for $5k to $25K (depending upon the property).

So, here are the four strategies that were discussed in the seminar. Please pay attention to changing numbers in each case.

Short Sale: When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property, the property is put for sale by a owner. Bank basically agrees to accept less than they lended. Here is a brief on how this works out:


Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price:    240,000 (Value went down)
Owner Sale Price               200,000
Morgage and Tax Backlog   10,000
Closing Costs                        5,000
Total Cost to buyer             215,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $25,000

Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 25K? you decide for yourself!

Foreclosure: When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property, the property is foreclosed by bank (Morgage Comapany). Now, bank tries to sell it. Here is a brief on how this works out:

Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price:       240,000 (Value went down)


Bank Sale Price                     170,000
Morgage and Tax Backlog       10,000
Closing Costs                            5,000
Cost to Fix the property           15,000
Total Cost to buyer                200,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $40,000
Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 40K? you decide for yourself!
Please Note: A property may sell in short sale, if it attaracts appropriate number of buyers and they feel its worth 215K. So, it may not ever be foreclosed.


Auctions: a) When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property b) Property was not sold during short sale and c) the property was not sold when foreclosed by bank (Morgage Comapany).

Now, government body tries to auction it to recover taxes etc. Here is a brief on how this works out:


Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price:        240,000 (Value went down)

Auction Sale Price                  140,000
Tax Backlog                             10,000
Closing Costs                             3.000
Cost to Fix                               30,000
Total Cost to buyer                183,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $57,000

Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 57K? you decide for yourself!

Please Note: A property may sell in short sale, if it attaracts appropriate number of buyers and they feel its worth 215K. Most properties sell during foreclosure. So, it may not ever be auctioned. Also, think of the property that did not attract buyers on two major price reductions.

REO (Real Estate Owned): a) When a buyer or investor can not make mortgage payments on a property b) Property was not sold during short sale c) the property was not sold when foreclosed by bank (Morgage Comapany) and d) Property was not sold during auction


Now, bank again tries to auction it to recover as much as possible and take it off their books. Here is a brief on how this works out:

Home original purchase price: 260,000
-------------------------------------------------
Home current retail price: 240,000 (Value went down)

Sale Price                        115,000
Closing Costs                      3,000
Cost to Fix                        30,000
Total Cost to buyer         148,000

Approximate equity on purchase date: $92,000

Now, if you want to live in this house for 3 years, then you get $8000 credit as well. If you put in "green" appliances, some more credit ($5,000 or so?).

Was the effort worth 92K? you decide for yourself!

Please Note: A property may sell in short sale, if it attaracts appropriate number of buyers and they feel its worth 215K. Most properties sell during foreclosure. So, it may not ever be auctioned. Also, think of the property that did not attract buyers on three major price reductions. However, REOs are pretty much as good as auctions because during auction you must pay in cash within 24hrs. Bank can lend you money to purchase REOs from them.

Remember, you must negotiate with bank to have them accept as low as possible. Numbers above are just representative. For every dollar bank has on a morgage, they have to set aside seven dollars that they can not touch. so, for a 200K house, there is 1.4M that they have on hold. They want to release that money asap by selling 200K property asap.

This worm will not go!

Once again the thought of starting my own business is haunting my mind. Last year, I had an unsuccessfully started my business which went no where after I realized that I am too late to submit my first proposal. Things doomed and I lost track.

But, one thing that I learned, and that I'll not repeat, is to select right partner in crime. I need a guy who is motivated, ambitious, have less household duties and and pull me into his ambitions.

This all started with the recent application for my immigration. I realized how small businesses have emerged since last 3-4 years and have turned into at least multi million dollar companies. I was sitting home completely missing this opportunity.

I have delved into the information of my old registered company 'Ascent Consultancy Services' to revive a part of it and at least make a website for it. Lets see where I go this time. Though, an excerpt on Columbia website has helped me shape my thoughts today. It was a great read about your personality type and I realized that I am a strong maximizer. Hope I maximize my business this time.

I am back again! Things have changed since my last post. Changed Job, Moved to NYC, Entered into stock trading... one of my favorite pass time. Moreover, now I have started thinking about MBA seriously. Though many questions still remain to be answered, but, I am ready to venture.

First, lets begin with foreign language. With some research and more of my hunch, I decided to learn french. Europe is opening up to the rest of the world and I hope to have good use of french by the time I complete my MBA. Sounds interesting? Lets see...

Next, my English language skills. Man! I really need to get back to my dictionary and start referring and using the words I use to use often. I think I have really lost the touch of writing skills as well. lets see how much I can revive.

Humm... community service! This something that I really have to think about. I am not sure If there is much to back me up. Trying to do something innovative. Lets hope it works out and helps in my application.

I think I can also start looking onto some old MBA essays and start writing something about myself. After all, its so difficult to articulate your five years of achievements and work-ex.

Lets Begin

Since last couple of weeks I was feeling extremely annoyed with whatever was going around me. If something went against my will, I was getting mad and a heat wave was blazing into my mind. Everything seemed to be so convoluted and every task labyrinth.

I talked to meenu and we found that since I have tied myself to a schedule, I am feeling irritated. I was deviating from the schedule and that was causing all this mess in my mind. We decided that I am not making any schedule for myself until meenu gets her residency. After all I should remain calm in this tensed situation.

I also thought that probably I am getting weak (not thin!) and that is why I am crumbling in front of heavy stress of meenu's admission. As was advised by one of my friend on an earlier similar problem some time back, I decided to have an apple a day. This advice did come from meenu earlier, but you know, she is wifi...

I started to have an apple in the morning and milk at night and voila! Today, when I encountered a similar evidence of "things not going the way I want them to", I remained composed and did not even think about it again.

Now what does that mean to me:
1. Listen to doctors advice
2. Fruits keep your spine straight.
3. Even if you are mad at something, realize that its a problem with you! Take it easy and resolve the issue at hand.