Sunday, October 25, 2009

Sway - Irresistibly Irrational Behavior

We all get swayed by our beliefs, prejudices and the way we perceive situations around us. We form believes from our life experiences and use those believes to assess our surrounding. For example, we often leave items on sale just because the price is too low. This is driven by our inner feeling that reduced items are often defective or not liked by many.We sometimes even pick the item, like it, but then get swayed thinking that it on sale so there has to be something wrong with it. I myself value clothing based on its brand. A CK shirt has to be good but Aeropostale...I tend to wear it at home. This is an irrational behavior as there are plenty of companies who manufacture equally good products as known brands and tag them much lower. The end result is that I usually pass those items paying extra for the same quality to CK.


Other situations that sway us frequently relates to avoiding short term loss. We frequently cross road on yellow light or change lane quickly to save few seconds. This results in getting a ticket, higher insurance for few years and in some cases collision and loss of life. A similar situation is sticking to a sinking stock that you recently purchased. We all tend to wait for it to re-bounce to atleast the original purchase price. In this chase, we disregard pieces of information that are clearly indicating that this is a loser stock now. As the stock goes down further, we think that its going to come back to the value it was sitting when you made the nasty decision of keeping it for now. The desire to recover loss does not end until no value is left in the stock.


In all the examples above, the point is that we form instincts that become hindrance to our rational thinking. We take decisions in the influence of such instincts, disregarding facts and information that may be indicating otherwise. Such a behavior leads to making wrong choices. When we have to decide, we should take a long term view and see how the decision/choice that you are about to make fits into the long term view. Imagine you had sold the stock when it lost $2 to purchase something that gained $3 in next couple of weeks when your stock lost another $4.


Checkout this book: Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior

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